Sunday, August 28, 2011

2011 Chicago Bears Preseason Thoughts

The lockout is done, three preseason games have been played, and the 2011 Chicago Bears are starting to take shape. After unexpected success last season, you would assume that hopes would be high this year. But, a tougher schedule, an improved division, and a fair amount of questions at key positions will again keep fans guessing this season. Warning: I haven't written since February so this is going to be Bill Simmons long...

In 2010, the Bears took advantage of a healthy roster and the rare good fortune to face a slew of 3rd string QBs last year. They were able to "hide" a porous offensive line, and a below average receiving corp and secondary. They were bad for most of the season on 3rd down, short yardage, and the red zone. But, their defense overall was good, the running game came around in the second half of the season, and their special teams were excellent as usual.

It is unrealistic to expect another 11 win season and division title without dramatic improvement on offense, especially along the offensive line this year. The Bears made a run at the Steelers' G/T Willie Colon, but he took a hometown discount to stay in Pittsburgh. Jerry Angelo also decided to let Olin Kreutz go reportedly over the ridiculously small sum of $500k (more on that later). So, the offensive will consist of a 2009 7th rounder playing left tackle, a 1st round bust at left tackle playing left guard, a solid right guard playing center, a young player who failed last year at right guard, and a rookie college left tackle playing right tackle. On paper, this lineup should not instill confidence in fans or, more importantly, Jay Cutler.

Through the first 3 preseason games, though, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the offensive line. After getting mugged by the Bills in the first game, they played pretty well against the Giants and the Titans. The Giants didn't get much pressure on Cutler, and the Titans weren't able to sack him (but they did put him on the ground a few times). Part of this improvement is due to the line playing better, but part of it is Cutler getting rid of the ball a little quicker. But, the tackles still concern me with the depth of their sets. Both Webb and Carimi still fail to get deep enough on seven-step drops. Lance Louis has looked shaky despite all reports of performing well in practice. I'm not sure he'll be the starter for 16 games. The Bears might be better off with the newly acquired Chris Spencer at center and Garza at right guard. For now, though, it looks like Mike Tice will be sticking with his original plan.

Cutler has looked good. It looks like he has improved his footwork as has been reported. This, in turn, has improved his accuracy. It still worries me that he throws off his back foot on quick passes to beat the blitz, though. It seems like all defenses will have to do this year is show lots of pressure on 3rd and long which will force a quick pass that will likely end the drive. At some point, the Bears offense will need to beat the blitz by throwing downfield. Also, I wish the Martz offense used more true 5-step drops, especially on 3rd and short. It looks to me like 5-step drops are actually 7-step drops and 7-step drops are actually 9-step drops. Cutler consistently sets deeper than other quarterbacks around the league. Yes, this will help open up things down the field, but if you need three yards, why are you dropping so deep? Just another thing about Martz that drives me nuts.

The offense, overall, looked pretty good against the Titans. They moved the ball through the air and on the ground. Forte looks quick and driven. He should be poised for another good season, if the contract issue doesn't get in the way. I like the addition of Marion Barber, who should provide some tough running in short yardage situations. I just wish, though, that the Bears running game wasn't so dependent on pulling the lineman. In short yardage situations, they just look like they have too many moving parts, which increases the chances of a lineman darting through to disrupt the play. But, I do like the use of draw plays and screen passes, which should be a big part of the offense again this year.

If you only watched the game against the Titans, you might be worried about the receivers. There were a bunch of dropped passes on easily catchable passes, including the one by Roy Williams that led to Cutler's interception. Williams has been a disappointment so far, and I think it's reasonable to expect similar numbers out of him that Dallas got the past 3 years (35-40 catches, 500-600 yds). He is not fast, and he has a tendency to drop lots of balls. The Bears publicly said they got a true #1 receiver when they brought him in, but that's just another case of arrogant coaches thinking they can improve a player's performance when previous coaches couldn't. Sure, Roy Williams had his best season in 2006 under Martz (82 rec, 1,310 yds, 7 tds), but that was 5 years ago. He has never exceeded 850 yds in any other season. Despite his arrogance, I just don't see him being a difference maker. If he can at least use his size to catch 5-6 tds in the red zone, then it was a worthwhile pickup. But, he will not be a go to receiver for the Bears. Just like last year, the offense will spread the ball around. I expect similar production out of Hester, Knox, and Bennett. Each of them are capable of winning match ups on any given play, but I don't think any Bears receiver is poised to take the jump to true #1 status this year. Hester and Knox have the physical ability, but both seem to lack a natural feel for the wide receiver position. Bennett, on the other hand, has the natural feel but is limited physically. The rookie Sanzenbacher will be a good story if he makes the team, but he is destined for nothing more than a slot receiver specialist (see Bobby Engram) rather than a difference maker. The Bears just can't find and/or develop #1 receivers. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

The defense will be good, especially the defensive line. Julius Peppers can take over a game, and Israel Idonije is solid at the other end. But, I really like the tackles. At the three-technique position, Henry Melton is poised for a big year. Also, Amobi Okoye was a great pickup who should contribute mightily behind Helton. He has been excellent this preseason. Toenia and Adams are major contributors at the nose tackle spot. Both are great against the run, and they have shown some ability to push the pocket. Corey Wootton is the 3rd defensive end, a position that Rod Marinelli likes to use to keep his starters fresh. But, he has been hampered by a knee injury, so this spot is in flux right now. He should be back in three to four weeks, but the Bears will probably use Melton at defensive end on occasion until Wootton gets back. During the Titans game, I saw Peppers line up inside and Melton outside a few times. That could be a dangerous combination this year. Vernon Gholston was given a chance to see if he could comeback from being a 1st round bust with the Jets, but he hasn't shown much in the preseason. He probably won't make the team.

The linebackers will continue to be a strength. Urlacher and Briggs are still borderline Pro Bowl players, and Nick Roach is solid on the strong side. Their depth is thin, so let's hope they all stay healthy. Briggs is already dinged up, so the Bears will keep him out until the opening game. He should be fine. I just hope Marinelli doesn't get blitz happy with the linebackers. I don't like the Cover 2 defense, but it is what they do best. I hate when they blitz the linebackers on 3rd and long and then give up a dump off pass that goes for first down because the corners are manned up with their backs to line of scrimmage. They should never blitz Urlacher and Briggs at the same time. Never. They don't do it often, but it drives me nuts when I see it.

The secondary is a weakness. Harris is solid at safety, and Major Wright has shown flashes. But, Wright has also missed two tackles in the preseason on touchdown runs by over-pursuing the running backs. He needs to do a better job of playing under control. However, neither of these players are ball hawks. I think most of that is due to the depth they are required to play in the Cover 2. The Bears don't generally give up long touchdowns due to this, but it also hampers their ability to jump routes. Tillman is still a gamer at corner, and Jennings is adequate at the other corner. D.J. Moore seems to be in the right place at the right time more often than not, but he is not a dominating nickel back. In a weird way, the zone coverage utilized in the Bears defense has prevented the organization from pursuing corners with good coverage skills. They live with average cover guys who tackle well. I'd like at least ball hawk in the secondary, but the Cover 2 is all about letting the offense catch slants and digs and punishing them. That's fine, but I'd like to see our corners be in position to jump a few routes now and then. Plus, most veteran quarterbacks will take advantage of the soft zone by getting the ball out quick to neutralize the pass rush. Teams don't use many deep drops against the Bears because they don't need to. The check downs are always available against the Cover 2.

The special teams will be solid, but I don't think they'll dominate like in year's past. They've lost some key contributors, and there will be an adjustment period with the new punter Adam Podlesh. Robbie Gould is good, but he's missed a few short ones in preseason. Let's hope that's an anomaly. His leg strength has improved dramatically since he entered the league. Knox will likely return kicks and Hester will return punts. Both are dangerous, but the blocking doesn't get enough credit for their success. Dave Toub will need to replace the loss of key contributors Tim Shaw and Garrett Wolfe.

The Bears didn't win any preseason games last year, but won the division. I don't put much weight on their preseason record, but it would be foolish to ignore glaring problems in exhibition games. I still worry about the offensive line, but I do think they'll be better than last year (that's not hard to do, though). The offense will again determine how far the Bears go this year. If Cutler gets protection, the red zone offense improves, and the defense stays healthy, the Bears could reach double digit wins this year. But, I'll save predictions for later. For now, I'm just glad football is back!

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Chicago Bears 2010 Season Wrap-Up

The 2010 Chicago Bears came within one game of making it to the Super Bowl. Let that sink in for a minute. The team most experts picked to finish at or below .500 won their division, earned a first-round bye, and won their first playoff game in convincing fashion. They hosted the NFC Championship Game and played tough against the hottest team in football who had demolished the #1 seed a week prior on the road. By all measurements, the 2010 season was an unqualified success for the Chicago Bears, especially considering preseason expectations.

The unfortunate thing about calling a season a success despite finishing short of the ultimate goal of winning it all is that opportunities like this are generally fleeting. Yes, the Bears came within one game of playing for the title. And, they did it with a porous offensive line and below average receivers. But, they also were the healthiest team in the league and had a pretty incredible string of good fortune (Calvin Johnson no-catch, playing against multiple 3rd string QBs, Vikings shocking the Eagles to give the Bears #2 seed). Of course, every team must take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves, and the Bears did just that. They played with a chip on their shoulders and proved a lot of doubters wrong.

But, what is troubling about not making it to the Super Bowl this year is that you can't count on good fortune every year. They will not face as many 3rd string QBs next year. They will not be as healthy. The Lions will be much better next year, the Vikings won't have the Favre/stadium drama, and the Packers will probably return as the best team in the NFC. So, in a season when expectations were low, the Bears had the chance to shock the football world and make it to the Super Bowl. They fell short. Can they make the necessary improvements and get better next year?

The optimist in me says, "yes". If they add a receiver, some offensive line talent, and maybe some secondary help, the Bears could improve. Jay Cutler will have another year in the Martz offense, and Martz will have another year with Jay Cutler. Matt Forte continues to be a multifaceted offensive weapon, and Devin Hester will continue to give the Bears huge advantages in field position. These are some of the reasons to remain hopeful.

However, this season sort of reminded of the 2003 Chicago Cubs. That team came out of nowhere and made a deep playoff push. They had some young talent, especially in the rotation, and some veteran leaders. Wood and Prior carried them to within 5 outs of their first World Series appearance in six decades. After the historical collapse that ended that season, everyone kept saying how dominant the Cubs would be for years to come. I wasn't one of those people. I knew that for most teams (excluding anomalies like the Yankees, Red Sox, Colts, Patriots, and Steelers), making a deep playoff run is uncommon. The opportunity does not present itself very often, especially in the NFL. There are simply too many variables each season. That's what makes the loss to the Packers even more painful.

So, what can the Bears do this offseason to ensure another playoff run next year? I've mentioned a few things already. They need to improve the offensive line, but I'm not really sure how they should do it. They have some young talent that showed flashes of ability, especially in the second half of the season. But, is Omiyale a starting left tackle in the NFL? Is Chris Williams worth starting at any position? Should they re-sign Kreutz and, if so, can he remain effective? Continuity is incredibly important on the offensive line, but if you're not trying to improve the talent at those positions, then Mike Tice will be using duct tape and glue to field a workable unit next year as well. Maybe if Jerry Angelo hadn't completely neglected the drafting of offensive lineman for most of his tenure, the Bears would be in better shape. They should probably sign a veteran and draft a center/guard. Either way, the offensive line will be the biggest question mark again in 2011.

Jay Cutler needs a reliable, franchise, go-to wide receiver. I have no idea if the Bears can or will find someone like this, but it is obvious that Knox, Hester, Bennett, and company cannot take over a game when needed. Olsen should be featured much more, too, but I'm not sure Martz is willing to do that. He seemed to forget about him for long stretches during the season. It sounds like the Bears will be active in free agency again, so maybe they can make another splash this year. A big, reliable downfield threat for Cutler will do wonders for the offense.

The Bears need to start drafting defensive backs who can play man-to-man. They had more success in the 2nd half of the Packers game when they challenged the Packers receivers at the line of scrimmage. This forces the quarterback to hold the ball a little longer, which also helps the pass rush. The Cover-Two isn't going away, but if they can play more man-under, it will make their defense even better. Tim Jennings is a stop-gap measure, and Bowman just doesn't seem to have the confidence to be a starter any more. Tillman is still reliable, but I think his physical play over the years is taking its toll. D.J. Moore is a keeper, and the jury is still out on Major Wright. They should probably bring back Manning. Drafting a corner in the first few rounds is probably necessary.

Before I wrap up this ridiculously long post, I need to comment on the Jay Cutler situation. I will be the first to admit that I was shocked when he exited the game. Yes, he was limping, but he was also standing for periods of time along the sidelines. Because I was wrapped up in the game, I was pissed Cutler didn't try to gut it out. The problem, though, wasn't the severity of the Cutler injury. The problem was how badly the Bears organization handled the whole thing. The announcers said his return was "questionable". That makes most fans think that he's CHOOSING not to go back into the game. Why put your franchise quarterback in that position? If, as was later reported, the training and coaching staff decided he couldn't go, then SAY THAT. Don't give the fans, media, and Twitter-happy players the chance to pile on your franchise quarterback! What a debacle. (By the way, Martz should take a pay cut for allowing Collins to be the #2 option, especially after that Carolina game. Moron.)

I think the truth behind the Cutler situation is that he is simply not liked and/or respected by players, fans, and the media. Players, especially, took the opportunity to question his toughness...not because they really believe he's a wuss, but because they dislike him. Unfortunately, though, Jay has brought this on himself. He has an image problem. There are some in the media (Joe Theismann) who think Cutler is just being himself, and that he shouldn't have to change. I vehemently disagree with that assertion. He is the starting quarterback for one of the proudest franchises in the NFL. His job is not limited to winning games and throwing touchdowns. While those are the most important aspects of his job, his duties do not end there. If you think they do, you are simply naive. He needs to be aware of how he carries himself on the sidelines and at the podium. It is part of his job to at least HIDE his disdain for the ancillary aspects of being a pro quarterback. How he carries himself on the field and in front of the media is important. If the rest of us have to fake our through some part of our day jobs, then Jay Cutler should have to as well. Image isn't everything (sorry Mr. Agassi), but it's important. And, if you think Cutler is immune to what other people think, read this story again.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Packers vs. Bears NFC Championship Game Preview

In case you haven't heard, there is a rather interesting football contest taking place this Sunday at Soldier Field between the Packers of Green Bay and the Bears of Chicago. Apparently, these teams have played a lot over the years, but rarely has their games had this much meaning. The winner, I guess, will have the chance to play in another game called the Super Bowl. I don't know about you, but I think that sounds kind of cool. I may even try to watch this match-up on my television.

Ok, enough of the snarkiness. Holy crap, the Bears and Packers are playing in the NFC Championship Game! Let that sink in for a minute. First of all, no one in their right mind saw the Bears having this much success this season. But, to top it off, not only are they one game away from the freakin' Super Bowl, but they also have the chance to get there by beating Green Bay, who, besides being our mortal enemies, were the chic Super Bowl pick this year by everyone and their sister. And it all takes place by lake at Soldier Field in Sweet Home Chicago. If you are not out-of-your mind, Alonzo Spellman-crazy, Mike Ditka-fired up for this game then you should hand in your Bears fan membership card.

Packers vs. Bears Preview

Protecting the quarterback, not turning the ball over, special teams, and the running game are all obvious factors that will impact the outcome of this football game. But, they are also obvious factors that impact almost ALL football games. So, I won't spend much time on these. In fact, I won't really be spending any time at all on the Packers strengths or weaknesses. Instead, I will focus on what I think are the important issues the Bears need to address in order to win this football game. Some of these still might be obvious, but, hey, I'm just a fan. No one has ever paid me to play, coach, or analyze professional football.

1. Red Zone Defense
It will be imperative that the Bears keep the Packers out of the end zone at the end of long drives. I think I'd have to be delusional to think we're going to completely shut down this Packers offense. They are going to move the ball to some extent. But, once they get inside the 20, the Bears will need to tighten up the space in their zones, force Rodgers into his 3rd or 4th read, and be aggressive at playing the football in the air. And, the defensive line can't be caught getting upfield and out of their gaps in case Green Bay decides to run weak-side draw plays under the defensive end. Any field goal given up inside the 20-yard line is a HUGE victory for the Bears.

2. Jay Cutler's Eyes
The Packers play an aggressive form of bump-and-run, man-to-man coverage. In his four games against this defense, Jay has looked befuddled most of the time. He needs to use their aggressiveness against them. There have been numerous times where he has stared down a receiver and thrown it late down the middle of the field only to see two, three, even four Packers defenders converge on the football. This can only happen when a quarterback is staring at a receiver or into an area far too long. Jay needs to use his eyes to move defenders to one area and then throw to the area they have vacated. I haven't seen him use many pump fakes, which may not be built in the Martz offense. But, that could also be an invaluable tool against a Packers defense that thinks it can pick off every pass he throws.

2a. Jay Cutler's Roaming Eyes
I hate to sound like such a Ron Turner, ball-control wimp, but I think Cutler (and Martz) should reverse the reads this week in their offense. I'm pretty sure most teams, and especially a Martz offense, have the quarterback read the defense from back to front (deep to short). The Packers pass rush and coverage is too good to wait for long developing pass plays. I think Jay should look for the underneath routes first and get the ball out of his hand to Forte, Taylor, and Olsen, especially early on in the game. This will help build confidence and, hopefully, frustrate the Packers blitz.

3. Forte and Taylor
I think Martz should put Matt Forte and Chester Taylor on the field at the same time for 12-15 plays. This will give them a myriad of run/pass options as well as showing Green Bay something that the Bears really haven't done much this year. If both players can chip on the ends/backers and then get into the flat, I think it will provide the outlet options Cutler will need.

4. Misdirection
The Bears have run on a few misdirection plays this year, and have had some success. I think they need to do this a few times early in the game to get the Packers thinking, which will slow down their pass rush. This is what offenses do to the Bears because their ends can get up field so fast. We should be doing it to other teams.

5. Zone Blitz
Ok, so this one might be a bit far-fetched, but I would love to see Marinelli call a handful of zone blitzes where D.J. Moore comes off the slot and Peppers drops back into coverage. While it may be insane to take Peppers out of what he does best, he is too athletic not to use him in a variety of ways to try and confuse the Packers. Plus, I would love to see Julius get a pick-six on a pass intended for Donald Driver.

6. Defensive Line Hand-Play
Finally, the entire defensive line should be aware of the clock in Rodgers' head. If on a given play the defensive line was unable to get much penetration, they MUST get their hands up in hopes of deflecting a pass. The Bears used to be really good at this during the Jauron years when they had very little pass rush. If the defense can get two or three balls tipped up in the air, good things will happen.

If the Bears can do some of these things plus, you know, protect the football, run it well, get a special teams score, and get a bunch of turnovers, the Bears will win big. I don't really think you can count on all of those happening in the same game, especially in the NFC Championship Game against a familiar opponent that is playing as well as the Packers. But, the defense has shown it can limit the Packers offense this year, and the Bears offense has shown some signs of life towards the end of the season. This should be a really close, relatively low-scoring game. Since the Bears are at home, and I'm a huge homer Bears fan, of course I think they'll win...but it will be close enough to cause a huge increase in Maalox consumption during the 4th quarter and, yes, overtime. So, pack your bags Bears fans. Your trip to Dallas awaits you. Bear Down!!!

Prediction
Bears 23, Packers 20 (OT)

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

My Chicago Bears Origin Story

In 1943, a former Notre Dame Monogram three-time award winner got the chance to play for the Chicago Bears when some of their players were drafted into the war. This offensive tackle was a large man with a wry smile and a great sense of humor. The stories of his antics became family folklore, much like Paul Bunyan. At 6'4" and over 230 pounds, he actually reminded people of Paul Bunyan. Even though he could easily intimidate (especially when, years later, boys started calling on his two daughters), it was his quick wit and general zaniness that left the biggest impression. After his one championship season with the Bears, playing alongside greats like Sid Luckman and Bronko Nagurski, he went on to become a successful salesman. He saw one of his daughters get married, and the birth of two grandchildren. Sadly, though, William (Bill) Steinkemper, my grandfather, died years before his time and shortly before I was born.

I never had the chance to sit on his knee, play catch with him, or ask about his stint with the Bears. As I get older, I think often about a relationship that never was and how it has shaped me as a man. I imagine the stories he must have had and the wisdom he could have shared. At times, when I allow myself to think hard about it, I ache. For some, that may not make sense. How is it possible to miss someone they've never known? I'm learning more and more each day, during life's inevitable trials, how real that pain can be.

The 1943 team picture (he's #35) hangs in my house as well as an "action" photo of my grandfather blocking for Sid Luckman. I see these photos everyday. They are my connection to him. While these photos can only offer a glimpse of the man he was, they still provide me with enormous pride and joy. I honor him with those photos. I also honor him when I explain to people that the Bears are part of my family heritage, however brief that stint may have been. Every Sunday from September through February (hopefully), I dutifully watch my Chicago Bears. I've cried after losses. I've danced after wins. I've broken a remote control. I've done victory laps through my house. I've punched countless pillows. I've alienated my perfect bride. I've even started a blog.

I guess, deep down, I do all of these things to honor the memory of the grandfather I never knew. I'm sure most fans have a similar story about their favorite team. While a relative or friend may not have played for that team, I'm sure there are countless memories and rituals about that team that involve a grandfather, father, mother, brother, sister or friend. These moments have helped shape each of us. It is, for lack of a better word, a legacy.

In the end, the cynical amongst us may claim that being a diehard fan is nothing more than rooting for laundry. But, that laundry represents something far more important than wins, money, bragging rights, or media fodder. It is a connection to our collective pasts, presents, and futures. For some, it is the only way to relate to family or friends. For others, it is an escape from the sometimes painful reality of life. Regardless of the reason, it is important, and it is every bit as real for us as it is for the men who are lucky enough to compete.

So, today I find myself reflecting upon the reasons I became a Bears fan, and how lucky I am that my grandfather played for a real organization like the Chicago Bears rather than that Mickey Mouse operation they run in Green Bay. :-)

Later this week, I'll put a preview together in the hopes I can provide Mike Martz with some tips on beating the Dom Capers defense. But, today, I'd like to hear other fan origin stories. What's yours?

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Seahawks vs. Bears Playoff Preview...Be Careful What You Wish For Edition!

As everyone knows by now, the most unlikely match up for the Bears first playoff game became reality when Seattle upset the Saints on Saturday and the Packers beat the Eagles. If you honestly thought this would happen, then you are either bat-crap crazy or a stinking genius. I thought our opponent would end up being the Saints because I "knew" they would win, and I was pretty confident the Packers would beat the Eagles. Well, Matt Hasselbeck and Marshawn Lynch sure proved me wrong, even though I was secretly wishing it would turn out this way. I mean, seriously, who wouldn't want to face a team that finished 7-9 in the regular season by winning the worst division in football?

It sounds like I wasn't the only Bears fan pulling for the Packers on Sunday, either. Legions of die-hard, mustache-wearing, sausage-eating fans were actually hoping our mortal enemies from cheeseland would beat the Eagles. Why? Because Michael Vick scares us a helluva lot more than Matt Hasselbeck. And, I think Bears fans remember the debacle against the Seahawks earlier this season and we want revenge.

Seahawks vs. Bears Preview:

Seattle was able to do some things on offense against the Saints that they shouldn't be able to do against the Bears. Hasselbeck threw multiple touchdowns down field over defenders that were either beaten in man coverage or simply out of position. He will have a very hard time doing that against the Bears due to the Cover-Two. He still scares me with his guile and intelligence, two factors that helped them beat the Bears during the regular season. But, the Bears got very little pressure on him that game, and the offense couldn't sustain a drive to save their lives. Somehow I don't see those things happening in this game. Jeremy Bates will call a good game and try to keep the Bears off balance with draws, slants, dig routes, and go routes down the sidelines between the corner and safety (all weaknesses of the Cover-Two), but Peppers and company will get hits on the banged up Hasselbeck and rattle him. If he's knocked out of the game (a distinct possibility), it's over.

Lynch's run at the end of the Saints game was amazing and memorable, but I can't see the Seattle running game being much of a factor against a fired-up, 2nd-ranked rush defense playing at home in their first playoff game in four years. Urlacher and Briggs will attack the line of scrimmage, which will force Seattle into lots of third and longs. I think they'll probably check down to Lynch and Forsett quite a bit in the passing game, so the Bears tackling will need to be better this time than the last time they played Seattle.

When the Bears have the ball, they'll need to be balanced and mistake-free. Obviously the offensive line will need to play well and Martz will need to remember that Matt Forte is his best bet for getting the Bears to the NFC Championship game. But, most importantly, Cutler will need to play poised and remain calm, especially early in the game. This is his first NFL playoff game and, at times in his young career, he's played recklessly in big games. I hope Martz is smart enough to know that the Bears can win this game without exposing Cutler to low percentage passing plays, especially early on.

I expect the special teams under Dave Toub to continue to excel. Why wouldn't I? He's the best special teams coach in the league and, if the Bears make it to NFC Championship Game, I hope he gets the big raise he deserves.

It took a great third down throw from Rex Grossman (no, seriously) and a Robbie Gould field goal in overtime to beat the Seahawks last time these two teams met in the divisional round. I don't think this game is headed for overtime, but a team that isn't suppose to win that is lead by a motivational head coach is dangerous. Seattle could run all sorts of misdirection plays, fake punts, and flea-flickers. Why wouldn't they? They're playing on borrowed time. However, this quote (Sun-Times) from Matt Hasselbeck after Seattle's win on Saturday is likely posted in the Bears' locker room. ‘‘If we get to play Chicago, then I think there is a chance we could still host another game here in the playoffs.’’ Well, Matt, you got your wish. Be careful what you wish for.

Prediction
Bears 24, Seahawks 13

Monday, January 3, 2011

A Meaningless Loss...or Was It?

The Chicago Bears are the #2 seed in the NFC. They have a bye this week, and they host their first playoff game in the Divisional Round the following week. After an abysmal preseason, a few terrible home losses, and colossal embarrassments against the Giants and Patriots, their playoff position is without a doubt an unexpected surprise (thank you Joe Webb). But, after a hard-fought loss to the Packers yesterday that had no impact on their playoff seeding, do we really know what this team is capable of accomplishing in the playoffs?

There are some encouraging signs that we can take from yesterday's game. In a playoff-type atmosphere in a hostile environment, the defense shut down one of the hottest passing games in the NFL. The defensive line made Rodgers uncomfortable most of the game, and the secondary executed much better than in recent games. They completely shutdown the Packers running game, got two turnovers, and were especially good on third down. After recent subpar performances against the Jets and Patriots, this is definitely encouraging. I would've liked to have seen Peppers or Urlacher make a game changing play, but they've been great most of the year, so I can't really complain. Overall, an outstanding effort by the defense on the road in a meaningless game against a desperate, hungry team.

However, the protection problems that have plagued the Bears most of the season have reared their ugly head again. The Packers employ a complicated, blitz heavy scheme that utilizes lots of man-under coverage. This makes it tough for the quarterback to find open receivers compared to playing against a zone scheme where holes underneath the coverage are common. But, the Bears have now seen this scheme four times in the past two years. Yet, it continues to befuddle Cutler. At some point, he and the offense need to learn how to beat this scheme. Most of his completions were short, and when he did throw down the field, it was frightening. There were at least two passes that should've been intercepted on top of the two that were intercepted. The quick dump-off passes to uncovered receivers running down the seam worked once or twice against the blitz, but then the Packers adjusted to that and took away a huge part of the Bears blitz-beating plays. Some of the protection problems weren't on the offensive line (Brandon Manumaleuna missed an easy block on a blitzing Charless Woodson), but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried that their confidence might be a little shaken heading into the playoffs.
I've read that the Bears utilized a "vanilla" game plan, and that they didn't do anything different in their game planning since the Jets game. That may be true, but aren't in-game adjustments needed even if you're not trying to show your hand to the rest of the league, especially when you're QB is getting mugged? This was the Martz offense from early in the season when ineffective pass plays kept getting called in place of running plays that had proved effective. I'm hoping this was an anomaly, but I'm worried that Martz still defaults to pass-whacky play calling when his back is against the wall. Let's hope Forte and his 4.5 yards per carry make a return visit in the next game because it seems like the offensive line has gotten the running game mostly figured out.

Johnny Knox, after a great game against the Jets, is starting to show his limitations as a number one receiver. He dropped an easy catch that hit him in the stomach, and his small stature limits his ability to make plays when the ball is in the air. His speed and quickness still make him dangerous, but the Bears need a reliable go-to receiver who can make a play in crunch time. Knox isn't that guy yet. Let's hope Bennett will be healthy for the playoffs because he has become, without a doubt, the most reliable receiver in key situations for the Bears.

It's tough to be overly critical of Cutler's performance. The protection wasn't great, and the Packers secondary stuck with the Bears receivers like glue. He provided us with his usual inexcusable throw with the interception in the end zone, but his other pick was just a bad pass. In fact, Hester was open on the play, and it would've given the Bears a first down inside the 15-yard line. I still worry that Cutler's few bad decisions each game will cost us in the playoffs, but I hope that he can play a mistake-free game when it counts. Or, at least overcome those mistakes with his potential for brilliance.

Pulling out my crystal ball, I think the Bears will play the Saints in the divisional round. I think the Packers and that defense of theirs will shutdown Vick and the Eagles. And, I don't see how the Seahawks can beat the Saints. I'd prefer to see Seattle in a rematch from earlier this season, so we can crush them on our way to the championship game, but I'd bet on Sean Payton and Drew Brees any day over Pete Carroll and Charlie Whitehurst/Matt Hasselbeck. I think the Bears match up pretty well to the Saints and we've already beaten the Eagles. So, if the Bears can tighten up things in their protection, and the defense can play with the intensity they showed yesterday, maybe the Bears can get themselves a playoff win.

But, no matter what happens this Sunday, we know we won't see the Packers again...unless it's in the NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field. If that happens, maybe Martz and company will figure out a way to beat that Capers defense. They didn't do it yesterday, but that was a meaningless game...right?

Monday, December 27, 2010

Bears Win; Mike Tice Earns His Paycheck

Most people thought that a game between the Bears and Jets in late December would be a low scoring defensive battle. As I like to say quite often--nobody knows anything. I was worried about the Bears offensive line getting mugged by the blitz-crazy Jets defense, but the line played like champs. They protected Cutler, opened holes for Forte, and started to show what they are capable of week in and week out. If they continue to improve, this line could go from a liability to a strength next year. For the rest of this year, they might be good enough to carry the Bears to a playoff win. The defense, though, took most of the Jets game off.

Sunday's game is why I will never be a big fan of the Cover-Two. If there is little pressure by the front four, and the opposing offense has done their film work, it is just too easy to complete slants, dig routes, and dump-offs. It's one thing to give up a few easy completions in a game, but the Bears made Sanchez look like Tom Brady in the first half. The Jets knew where they could attack on the field and they went to it over and over again. Plus, Tillman (who I respect the hell out of) just isn't athletic enough anymore to be an effective coverage corner. He knows this, too, because he plays very soft coverages most of the time hoping to take away the deep routes. Part of his technique is scheme, but part of it is fear. Most of the time, it just doesn't look like he trusts his ability to play receivers tight. Every once in a while, I would like to see the Bears mix up their coverages just to keep the other team honest. The defense played better in the second half, but they can't afford to play that poorly against the Packers this week and win.

Luckily, Cutler played great (besides his typical dumb interception). I'm not sure I trust this offense in the playoffs to score 30+ points and win a shootout, but I guess they are starting to show that a 10-14 point deficit isn't insurmountable anymore. That, I like. Martz's playcalling continues to be effective, and Cutler is dominating when given time to throw down the field. The pass to Forte down the sidelines was incredible.

How good are the Bears special teams? Teams are so scared to kick to Hester that the Bears are consistently getting superb field position, which is really helping their offense. I can't recall the Bears going on many long drives lately because they are usually starting at or near midfield. This will continue to be a huge advantage as the Bears head towards the playoffs. Hester is playing as well as ever, and it looks like the rest of the special teams are feeding off his energy.

It was a fun win against the Jets, and I'm truly shocked that the Bears have won 11 games this year. If they beat the Packers next week, they'll lock up the #2 seed in the NFC and secure a bye in the first round. I really like the sound of that.